Three weeks into the joint US-Israeli campaign against Iran, the conflict has entered a phase of uncertainty, with mixed signals from Washington and continued military activity on the ground raising questions about what comes next.
⚠️ Conflicting Signals from Washington
US President Donald Trump has described the war as “pretty much complete” and said it is “winding down.” However, ongoing airstrikes by US and Israeli forces suggest the situation remains active. At the same time, additional American troops, including a Marine expeditionary unit, are being deployed to the region, indicating that preparations for further action may still be underway.
Strait of Hormuz Remains a Flashpoint
The Strait of Hormuz continues to be a key issue in the conflict. The strategic waterway carries nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply, yet it has not fully reopened. While Trump has called reopening it a “simple military manoeuvre,” reports suggest that only Iranian-approved vessels are currently passing through, keeping global markets on edge.
Continued Iranian Military Activity
Despite claims that Iran’s military has been significantly weakened, attacks have not stopped. Drone and missile strikes continue across the region, with some reportedly reaching as far as the US-UK base in Diego Garcia. These developments indicate that Iran still retains the ability to respond and project force beyond its borders.
Threat of Further US Escalation
In a recent statement, Trump warned that the US could escalate the conflict if Iran does not fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours. He indicated that Iranian power plants could become potential targets. This warning came shortly after he stated that US objectives in the conflict were close to being achieved, highlighting the uncertain direction of the strategy.
US Objectives and Strategic Shift
Trump outlined key goals including weakening Iran’s military, damaging its defence systems, limiting its nuclear programme, and protecting US allies. However, securing the Strait of Hormuz was not included among these objectives. Trump has argued that countries more dependent on Gulf oil should take responsibility for keeping the route open. There has also been a noticeable shift in tone, with recent statements avoiding earlier calls for regime change or “unconditional surrender.”
Military Build-Up and Ground Force Questions
Reports indicate that around 2,500 US Marines have already been deployed from Japan, with another similar force expected from the United States. Some analysts suggest that the US could target Kharg Island, Iran’s main oil export hub. Disrupting operations there could significantly impact Iran’s revenue and increase pressure for negotiations. Although Trump has denied plans to send ground troops, he has not ruled out the possibility entirely.
Iran’s Warning and Regional Risks
Iran has responded by warning that any attack on key assets like Kharg Island could lead to retaliation across the region. This could include disruptions in the Red Sea and attacks on energy infrastructure, raising concerns about a broader regional crisis.
Rising Costs and Political Concerns
The financial cost of the conflict is also coming into focus. Reports suggest the US administration may seek up to $200 billion in emergency funding from Congress. Lawmakers, including some Republicans, have expressed caution, asking for more clarity on the mission, long-term strategy, and potential involvement of ground troops.
Uncertain Path Ahead
Despite statements suggesting progress, ongoing military activity and troop movements point to a conflict that is far from over. With no clear resolution in sight, the situation remains fluid, and the next steps taken by the US could determine the future course of the conflict.
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